What Does the Gap Between Planned and Actual Hours Tell You?

The gap between planned and actual hours isn't automatically an estimation error. It has three separate sources — scope creep, the capacity illusion, and real estimation error — and every fix made without telling them apart lands in the wrong place.

The gap between planned and actual hours doesn't by itself mean the estimate was wrong. The deviation has three separate sources, and every correction made without telling them apart lands in the wrong place.

The three sources of deviation

Scope creep. The work isn't the work it was when it was estimated. Requests that slip in during execution grow the hours — but the estimate was right.

The capacity illusion. A person may be on the clock forty-five hours a week, but not all of it is project work. Meetings, support, and admin have to be subtracted before you can build a capacity figure. The statutory weekly cap on working time is set at forty-five hours in Article 63 of Turkish Labour Law No. 4857.

Real estimation error. The work itself turned out harder than assumed. This is where the thing worth learning is hidden.

How to separate the deviation

At the weekly close, ask one question for each task that ran over. Did the task's definition change, did the person spend the hours meant for it on other work, or did the work simply take longer than expected?

  • If the definition changed, log it as scope — don't touch the estimation system
  • If the hours went elsewhere, lower the capacity ratio
  • If neither, update the estimation factor for that type of work

Three weeks of records reveal the real capacity ratio for most teams. That ratio usually settles between sixty and seventy percent, and planning is done with that number.

The direction of the deviation carries information too. If actual hours consistently land under the estimate, the team is padding its estimates to stay safe, and the idle capacity becomes invisible. This gets noticed less than a delay and throws off planning just as much.

Where it gets recorded

Deviation can only be read when the hours and the task live in the same place. When the Kronos timer is started from the task card, the time is written straight onto that task, and the Task Management board shows the planned and actual figures side by side. The project-management modules are listed on the Project Managers page.

Here's the limit: Lodos doesn't produce an automatic budget alert or a critical-path calculation. Reading and interpreting the deviation at the weekly close stays the project manager's job.

The billing side of the same record sits in the utilization rate breakdown.

FAQ

What percentage of deviation is normal? There's no fixed threshold. What matters is whether the direction of the deviation is consistent. If the same type of work deviates the same way three weeks running, the estimation factor is wrong.

How do you find the capacity ratio? Look at the share of a person's total logged hours for the week that went to project tasks. That ratio is the real capacity to use in planning.

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